INDIA IS NOW A TRILLION DOLLAR ECONOMY!
According to a Credit Suisse report, Indian GDP at the current price level of the rupee (Rs 40.76 per $) stands at $1trillion. The strengthening rupee has now made India the 12th country to achieve this milestone.
With the Rupee appreciating to below 41 against the US dollar on Wednesday, it was the first day for the economy to be a trillion-dollar economy.
The report said that India's stock market capitalisation too stands at $944 billion, just shy of the $1-trillion mark. However, if one stretches the definition of what constitutes an Indian stock, plus does a rounding, the Indian stock market is also about a trillion dollars as of Wednesday.
The first ever attainment of these landmarks is likely to create many self-congratulations and media events in the coming days. Fundamentally, they do not change anything, but the likely hoopla will add to investor sentiment, says the Credit Suisse report.
The report, adding some history trivia, says that eight out of the 10 economies had their stock markets rise in the one-year period after they first crossed $1trillion mark in GDP. The United Kingdom is the only economy to stop being a trillion-dollar economy for a while after attaining the status the first time.
The report, however, says that there is nothing magical about $1trillion or any such mark; and that it is wrong to take quarter-end GDP and some interim exchange rates for the calculation of GDP in a foreign currency. Any apparent GDP growth in foreign currency denomination due to the exchange rate move is not real growth, it said.
The other economy that crossed the same mark recently is Russia, which was within the last 2.5% as per the latest published GDP data of Dec-06. Somewhat coincidentally perhaps, the economies that crossed $1t-rillion mark mostly had positive equity markets in a year after they first crossed the level, even though some may want to partly attribute the "coincidence" to the halo effect on inflows created by reaching such a milestone.
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